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#匯率避險

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Wealth Awakening

Buy the Dip on US Treasury ETFs? Three Duration Blind Spots That Can Shrink Your Principal by 30%

Hundreds of thousands of people in Taiwan keep buying the dip on long-duration US Treasury ETFs without realizing that products with a 15-to-20-year duration can cut your principal in half in a rising-rate environment, just as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) lost more than 50% from its 2020 high to its 2023 low. This article breaks down three blind spots you must understand before adding more: the math of duration times interest-rate moves that decides your maximum drawdown, the trap where yield does not equal total return and monthly distributions can come out of your own principal, and the hidden costs of FX hedging and premium/discount mechanics that are specific to Taiwan-listed US Treasury ETFs. It provides four iron rules and a four-step action plan to help you decide whether buy-the-dip is right for your situation, plus an extreme-scenario backup plan to keep your retirement savings from getting trapped by rates you cannot control.

13 min
Wealth Awakening

Goldman Sees S&P 8000 — 3 Fatal Mistakes Taiwan Retail Will Make

Goldman just lifted its S&P 500 target above 6,500 with some analysts seeing 8,000, calling for an 18-to-24-month super-bull market. Taiwan retail investors are most likely to make three fatal mistakes in the heated sentiment: treating behavioral costs as returns, choosing the wrong channel that hides fees, and being led by financial institutions' commercial interests. Using Taiwan Stock Exchange data on retail trading frequency versus institutions, FSC disclosure on offshore-fund expense ratios, and the U.S. estate-tax exposure of NT$60,000 / 40% bracket for non-citizens, this article breaks down three underlying rules, three calculation sets, four veto iron rules, and a four-step action plan to help you preserve wealth before the bull market actually ends. You will learn why the gap between 4% and 8% annualized over 20 years amounts to over NT$2.2 million, how to check the total expense ratio of any Taiwan-listed U.S.-equity ETF via SITCA, and why inheritance-tax and currency-hedging costs are two Taiwan-local advanced traps hidden in plain sight. By the end you will know whether your current allocation can survive a 30% drawdown — and whether you should even add right now.

16 min
Wealth Awakening

Why Are You Still Losing Money on ETFs? 4 Fatal Mistakes That Make 20 Years Pointless

You are buying the S&P500 and the Nasdaq 100, but your account stays in the red. The problem is not the ETFs — it is the four operational mistakes Taiwanese investors make most often: turning dollar-cost averaging into a market-timing tool, ignoring the cost structure, ignoring currency, and panic-stopping contributions at the worst moment. Perfect execution over 20 years builds roughly NT$3.5 million; after mistakes it is only about NT$2.7 million — how exactly does a million NTD walk out of your pocket? This article walks through the arithmetic, exposes the fee and currency traps, and gives you four pre-written emotional rules that protect your compounding when discipline breaks down. If you are about to give up on ETFs, read this first — the answer is rarely to stop, and almost always to fix how you buy.

9 min