Goldman Sees S&P 8000 — 3 Fatal Mistakes Taiwan Retail Will Make
Goldman just lifted its S&P 500 target above 6,500 with some analysts seeing 8,000, calling for an 18-to-24-month super-bull market. Taiwan retail investors are most likely to make three fatal mistakes in the heated sentiment: treating behavioral costs as returns, choosing the wrong channel that hides fees, and being led by financial institutions' commercial interests. Using Taiwan Stock Exchange data on retail trading frequency versus institutions, FSC disclosure on offshore-fund expense ratios, and the U.S. estate-tax exposure of NT$60,000 / 40% bracket for non-citizens, this article breaks down three underlying rules, three calculation sets, four veto iron rules, and a four-step action plan to help you preserve wealth before the bull market actually ends. You will learn why the gap between 4% and 8% annualized over 20 years amounts to over NT$2.2 million, how to check the total expense ratio of any Taiwan-listed U.S.-equity ETF via SITCA, and why inheritance-tax and currency-hedging costs are two Taiwan-local advanced traps hidden in plain sight. By the end you will know whether your current allocation can survive a 30% drawdown — and whether you should even add right now.
