Case Study #3 — Zero Operations for 45 Days, $4,500 In: The Perfect Full-Collection Script
💡 Reading time: ~8 minutes ｜ Series: Real-World Case Study #3
Trade overview
| Underlying | Strike | Contracts | Days held | Premium in | Cost to close | Net P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG SP | $295 | 3 | 45 | $2,625 | $0 | +$2,625 | 3.0% |
| NVDA SP | $175 | 3 | 45 | $1,875 | $0 | +$1,875 | 3.6% |
| Total | $4,500 | $0 | +$4,500 | 3.2% |
Closing cost = $0. Zero operations. Full premium landed.
Why could these go full collection? Three layers of defense
Layer 1: the safety distance of the strike
| Underlying | Stock at open | Strike | Safety distance | Required stock drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG | ~$315 | $295 | -6.3% | down $20 to hit |
| NVDA | ~$195 | $175 | -10.3% | down $20 to hit |
Layer 2: time window choice
3/17 open → 5/1 expiry. Those 45 days deliberately avoided the mid-April earnings density.
- Late March: market relatively calm
- Mid-April: some company earnings, but GOOG and NVDA weren’t in this window
- Late April to early May: back to calm
Choosing a “no major events” time window for Sell Put is itself a form of risk management.
Layer 3: fundamental conviction in the underlying
Both GOOG and NVDA are names I have long-term conviction in. Even if the price dropped below the strike, I’d be willing to buy at that price.
The big premise of Sell Put: the strike you pick must be a price you’d genuinely want to buy at.
45 days of mental training
Week 1 (3/17–3/24): excitement phase
“Two positions open at once, $4,500 in premium collected in one shot!”
Weeks 2–4 (3/25–4/14): boredom phase
“Look once a day, nothing changes. So boring.”
Week 5 (4/15–4/21): itchy-hands phase
“GOOG is already up 70%, should I close early?”
I opened Excel and ran the numbers:
Already up 70% ($1,838). If I close now, give up 30% ($787).
10 days to expiry. Stock is $25 above the strike (8.5%).
Probability of GOOG dropping 8.5% within 10 days: < 5%.
Conclusion: not worth giving up $787 to avoid a 5% small risk.
Held.
Week 6 (4/22–5/1): harvest phase
“3 days to expiry, locked in.”
The last 3 days of Theta decay were extremely fast. GOOG’s option went from ~$0.30 to $0.05 to $0.00.
At close on 5/1, both expired OTM. $4,500 in full.
Early close vs. hold to expiry: decision framework
| Situation | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| 10 days to expiry + stock > 5% above strike | ✅ Hold to expiry |
| 10 days to expiry + stock 3%–5% above strike | ⚠️ Can close to lock in 80%+ profit |
| 10 days to expiry + stock < 3% above strike | 🔴 Close out, not worth the risk |
| Profit > 80% any time + you feel uneasy | Close. Peace of mind is worth more than 20% extra. |
Reflection after the full collection
These two trades were perfect. But perfection is dangerous.
Because it made me feel “Sell Put is this simple.” And that thought led directly to the May disaster.
Every perfect execution should remind you: this win came from “right strike + market cooperation.” Not from being a genius.
📌 Little Otter’s rule of thumb: 10 days to expiry, stock > 5% above the strike — don’t close early. Let Theta eat the last bite of meat clean. But if the stock is approaching the strike, “leaving alive” is always the priority.
Disclaimer: This article is a personal trading experience share, not investment advice.
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