Don't Retire on NT$10 Million: 3 Truths Why the 4% Rule Fails in Taiwan
Many people treat NT$10 million and the 4% rule as the standard retirement answer, but that formula was born from William Bengen's 1994 U.S. research and assumes a 60/40 stock-bond mix, a 30-year horizon, and the U.S. market. Drop it into Taiwan with a 35-year horizon and a Taiwan Weighted Index that trails U.S. equities, and the success rate collapses fast. This article breaks down the three premise gaps that break the 4% rule, the sequence-of-returns risk, the structural gap in Taiwan's labor pension and labor insurance system, and how to build a cash buffer pool in the 5 years before retirement. It closes with four steps you can take today — Bureau of Labor Insurance calculator, voluntary labor pension contributions, asset allocation by horizon, and an annual review date — to convert the 4% rule from a slogan into a workable Taiwan plan.