TWSE at 43,500, US Stocks Hit New Highs: 3 Crash Warning Signs 90% of Retail Investors Miss
With the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) at 43,500 and the US S&P 500 at record highs, group chats are filled with people shouting "this time is different." But the playbook that played out in 2000, 2008, and 2022 keeps repeating: the final leg of every major bull market is exactly when the most retail investors pile in fully invested and the most people get trapped at the top. This article breaks down three warning signs that are unfolding right now but 90% of retail investors cannot read: retail margin balance hitting record highs, P/E ratios deviating sharply from historical averages, and volatility indices collapsing. It then runs three side-by-side accountings of fully leveraged margin versus phased allocation, closes with four iron rules, a four-step action plan, and two Taiwan-specific traps most people overlook (ETF premium/discount mechanics and dividend tax plus Second-Generation National Health Insurance supplementary premium). The most expensive thing at the end of a bull market is not the stocks themselves; it is your indifference to risk.